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Forecast decrease for winter crop production

Australia’s winter crop production is expected to decrease in 2017-18 as a result of unfavourable conditions in many key cropping regions, according to the latest Australian Crop Report by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

ABARES Chief Commodity Analyst, Peter Gooday, said winter crop production is forecast to decrease 39 per cent in 2017-18 to 36.3 million tonnes.

“While this is a big fall from 2016-17 the latest forecast is two per cent above the 10-year average to 2015-16,” Mr Gooday said.

“Seasonal conditions were mixed for crops during winter and as a result the condition of crops at the start of spring varied significantly.

“The decrease for winter crop production largely reflects an expected fall in yields from the exceptionally high yields of 2016–17.”

Production decreases are forecast for the three major winter crops with wheat production forecast to decrease by 38 per cent to 21.6 million tonnes, barley production by 40 per cent to 8.0 million tonnes and canola production by 33 per cent to 2.8 million tonnes.

Amongst other crops, chickpea production is forecast to fall by 36 per cent to 1.2 million tonnes and oat production is forecast to fall by 45 per cent to 1.0 million tonnes.

“These forecasts will only be achieved if spring rainfall is sufficient and timely, especially in central west New South Wales and the Eyre and Yorke peninsulas in South Australia,” Mr Gooday said.

“According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, spring rainfall will likely be around average in most cropping regions.”

Read the full report here.

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